State revenues continue to fall

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Ed Reinke

October 10, 2009

By RONNIE ELLIS, CNHI News Service The Commonwealth Journal Sat Oct 10, 2009, 07:37 PM EDT

September receipts for the state of Kentucky made a gloomy budget picture even gloomier as they fell nearly 10 percent over the same month last year.

State Budget Director Mary Lassiter said General Fund receipts fell 9.8 percent in September over Sept-ember 2008. Revenues for the month were $725.6 million comp-ared to $804 million last year in September.

The grim figures continue a trend for the fiscal year which began July 1. For the first three months of FY 2010, the General Fund fell 5.6 percent. That’s in the second year of a biennial budget that’s already been adjusted twice by a total reduction of nearly $1.4 billion.

Gov. Steve Beshear and key lawmakers like House Speaker Greg Stumbo have repeatedly said hard times for the state budget are likely to last through at least the end of this year and probably into the next calendar year. Nothing in Lassiter’s monthly report alters that view.

It said that revenues have declined for the past nine months “as a result of the national recession and its impact on the Kentucky economy.”

Sales and income taxes account for nearly three-fourths of the General Fund budget and they “have been declining for an extended period of time,” Lassiter said.

Road fund receipts were also down, although by a much smaller margin of 0.8 percent. But the Road Fund has enjoyed growth in some of its revenue sources because of tax incentives for vehicle purchases and the Cash for Clunkers Program.

Based on official revenue forecasts, the state budget has a margin of error for the remainder of the year of only 0.2 percent. That’s how much revenues can fall for the remaining nine months and still meet the official estimate on which the budget is based.

The Consensus Forecasting Group, a group of economists who predict economic activity and state revenues, meets Monday to revise its outlook for the fiscal year.

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